What is Slantwise convection?
A form of convection driven by a combination of gravitational and centrifugal forces.
What is CSI in weather?
A form of the critical success index (CSI) is used by the National Weather Service to indicate the value of warnings. This verification statistic assumes that the times when an event was neither expected nor observed are of no consequence.
What is inertial instability?
inertial instability refers to its resistance to transverse-horizontal displacement. It turns out that it is possible for a parcel to be both statically (vertically) and inertially (horizontally) stable, and yet be unstable with respect to diagonal displacement.
What is Critical Success Index?
critical success index (CSI). Also called the threat score (TS), is a verification measure of categorical forecast performance equal to the total number of correct event forecasts (hits) divided by the total number of storm forecasts plus the number of misses (hits + false alarms + misses).
What is equitable threat score?
The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) measures the skill of a forecast relative to chance and is often used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. It is computed for each station over the given period, and then averaged over an area.
What is a good Brier skill score?
A Brier skill score (BSS) of 1.0 indicates a perfect forecast, while a BSS of 0.0 should indicate the skill of the reference forecast.
What is a good heidke skill score?
The range of the HSS is -∞ to 1. Negative values indicate that the chance forecast is better, 0 means no skill, and a perfect forecast obtains a HSS of 1. The HSS is a popular score, partly because it is relatively easy to compute and perhaps also because the standard forecast, chance, is relatively easy to beat.
Is a higher Brier score better?
Brier Skill Score (BSS) With a brier score, lower is better (it is a loss function) with 0 being the best possible score. But with a brier skill score, higher is better with 1 (100%) being the best possible score.
Can Brier score negative?
A Brier skill score has a range of -∞ to 1. Negative values mean that the forecast is less accurate than a standard forecast. 0 = no skill compared to the reference forecast. 1 = perfect skill compared to the reference forecast.
What is an acceptable Brier score?
Remember: A Brier score of 0 means perfect accuracy, and a Brier score of 1 means perfect inaccuracy. To further help with the interpretation of scores, consider that a perpetual fence-sitter—someone who assigns a probability of 0.5 to every event—would wind up with a Brier score of 0.25.